In the ever-changing Manhattan housing market, one question comes up again and again: “Are home prices finally going to drop?”

As a New York City Real Estate Agent working with clients across Chelsea, the West Village, Gramercy, Tribeca, SoHo, Hell’s Kitchen, and the Upper West Side, I can tell you the answer is clear — home prices aren’t falling. They’re still rising — just at a steadier pace.

The Forecast: Growth, Not Decline

The latest national housing data shows that prices are expected to rise by an average of 3% per year through 2029.
Even the most conservative forecasters agree: while growth will vary from city to city, the overall trend points upward — not downward.

That’s a key signal for both buyers and sellers in the New York real estate market. Manhattan remains one of the most resilient and globally desired real estate markets in the country, supported by strong demand and limited inventory.

What This Means for Buyers in Manhattan

If you’ve been waiting for prices to fall, it might be time to rethink that strategy.
In neighborhoods like Chelsea, Tribeca, and SoHo, demand for well-located properties continues to hold strong — and with steady appreciation ahead, waiting could mean paying more later for the same home.

A consistent 3% price increase each year may not sound like much, but over five years, that adds up.
For example, a $1 million condo today could cost roughly $1.16 million by 2029 — before accounting for mortgage rate shifts or inflation.

The takeaway: buying sooner rather than later could protect your long-term investment.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers in Hell’s Kitchen, the West Village, or the Upper West Side, this forecast is a reassuring sign.
Rising prices create opportunities to build equity and strengthen market confidence. While we’re not in the double-digit growth years seen earlier in the decade, a stable upward trend means well-priced homes are still selling — especially when marketed strategically.

If you’re planning to sell in the next year or two, working with a data-driven agent who understands both national trends and local nuances can help you time your move for maximum return.

The Bottom Line

Experts agree — home prices aren’t falling. They’re moving steadily upward, and Manhattan’s housing market continues to show long-term strength.

📩 Thinking about buying or selling in Chelsea, SoHo, or the Upper West Side? Let’s connect. I’ll help you understand how these national forecasts translate to the New York City market, and guide you in making confident real estate decisions for the years ahead.